Esta semana ficamos pela Economist. Nos útimos números apareceram uma série de artigos muito interessantes sobre tendências de consumo, nem todas evidentes. A primeira que vos deixo hoje tem a ver com a relação avós-bébés… Há cada vez mais dos primeiros e cada vez menos dos segundos… De que forma altera isto os padrões de consumo? Nem sempre é óbvio.. Leiam…

“Gymboree

A baby bust may be the best time to buy firms that sell kids’ stuff

Oct 14th 2010 | New York

 PRIVATE-EQUITY barons don’t usually go shopping for baby blankets and bibs. But on October 11th Bain Capital, a buy-out firm, announced that it would purchase the Gymboree Corporation for $1.8 billion. The deal is the largest buy-out so far this year in the beleaguered retail industry, according to Dealogic, a research firm. Why the interest?

Gymboree sells children’s clothes and operates centres where children can play noisy games on brightly coloured soft mats. It has performed reasonably well despite the recession: annual sales have stayed flat for the past two years, at around $1 billion. Children’s clothes are recession-resistant. Parents hate to see kids do without. Also, rugrats grow annoyingly fast, and often need new shoes.

But there is more to Bain’s bet than this. Peter Francese, a demographer at Ogilvy & Mather, an advertising agency, describes it as “a pure demographic play”. It is a counterintuitive one: the birth rate in America has dipped to its lowest point in at least a century. Young couples are putting off having babies because they doubt they can afford it.

But the chances are that they still want children. Once the economy improves, the people who put off parenthood will get down to it. Mr Francese projects that in 2014 there will be 4.4m births, a record high. “That’s a lot of demand for Gymboree’s products,” he says. What’s more, the women who give birth to these post-recession babies will be better educated than any previous generation of mothers, and slightly older too. Many will earn enough to splurge on pricey accoutrements for their offspring.

And don’t forget the grandparents. America’s overall population is expected to grow by less than 1% a year for the next few years, but the number of people aged 65 to 74 will grow at a rate of 5%. Boomer grandparents will spoil their children’s children as eagerly as they once spoiled themselves.

Gymboree will not be the only retailer to benefit. Firms that sell car seats, nappies, baby food, toys and cradles will all profit from a post-recession baby boomlet, if it occurs. If not, there are always emerging markets, such as Brazil. Gymboree already operates play and music centres in 30 countries outside America, and hopes to use them to raise brand awareness and flog some togs for tots. In April, Bain and TPG, another private-equity firm, bought a stake in Lilliput Kidswear, a children’s apparel company in India. With a booming population there, it’s unlikely they will have to suffer many growing pains.””